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In valuing the equity of a business, it is common to first estimate the value of the business as a whole. This value is referred to as the enterprise value (“EV”). EV reflects the value of all of a business’ funding sources i.e. all forms of the business’ debt and equity.
Businesses currently find themselves in unchartered waters as the Covid-19 pandemic situation continues to persist. Even historically profitable businesses are not spared as supply chains globally are disrupted and the future looks bleak. In particular, small and medium enterprises (“SMEs”) have been hit hard. The SBF-Experian SME Index^, which tracks business sentiment specifically for SMEs in Singapore for the next six months, fell from 50.4 in Jan 2020 to 48.3 in April 2020, reaching an all-time low since the establishment of the index in 2009*. To navigate uncertain times, it is crucial for SMEs to review their existing business plans and cash flow forecasts which may be obsolete given the disruption caused by Covid-19.
Estimating Discount Rate Under Uncertain Times
By: Adrian Cheow, Executive Director & Practice Leader, Deal Advisory, FCCA 
Introduction
In our previous Salient Point (Issue 3), we discussed how a company could go about preparing a cash flow forecast. Such a forecast, as mentioned in that article, could be helpful to improve the company’s cash flow visibility under uncertain times. Additionally, cash flow forecast could be used to determine the value of the business using the discounted cash flow (“DCF”) method. Such a valuation could be used for, amongst other things, fund-raising, impairment assessment and/or reporting to stakeholders.
To conduct a valuation using the DCF method, in addition to a cash flow forecast, a discount rate estimate is needed to present value the forecast cash flows. In this article, we discuss aspects of the discount rate that would be helpful to know if you are estimating or reviewing one.
Reviewing inputs to a discount rate estimation
Typically, the discount rate used to present value forecast cash flows of a business is the weighted average cost of capital (“WACC”) of the business. There are various inputs that go into estimating a WACC for a business. Below, we discuss these inputs and their considerations under uncertain times.
Based on the comments provided above, we have illustrated a WACC for a private company based in Singapore as at 31 Dec 2019 (Pre-Covid-19) and 31 May 2020 (Current) in the table below.
Careful consideration should be given in estimating the WACC of the business. The WACC is unlikely to be lower than Pre-Covid-19 given that the level of risk in the investment is higher during these uncertain times.
Ensuring no double counting of risk
Estimation of a discount rate cannot be done independently of the preparation of a cash flow forecast. If adjustments to cash flow forecasts have been made to take into account the effects of Covid-19 related disruptions, then adjustments to discount rate need not be as high as it would have been if no adjustments to cash flows were made. This approach ensures that the risks to the business due to Covid-19 is not double counted in both the cash flows and discount rate.
Using cross-checks may be imperative
It may be necessary to cross-check the valuation outcome from the DCF method, given the uncertainties associated with preparing the cash flow forecasts and the inputs to the discount rate. We could compare the implied earnings multiple of the subject company against industry peers. Here too, not all industry multiples have changed equally due to Covid-19.
It is important to note that such cross-checks have limitations. There may be company specific factors that may make comparisons to guideline public companies difficult. However, in general, such cross-checks will help build confidence in the valuation done using the DCF method.
How We Can Help
If you are looking to engage a valuer for your business needs during these uncertain times, our Deal Advisory department may be able to help you.
Get in touch with the author(s):
Adrian Cheow
Executive Director & Practice Leader
Deal Advisory
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